Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response vaccination
Abstract
Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2410.13923,
title = {Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response vaccination},
author = {Manjari Shankar and Anna-Maria Hartner and Callum R. K. Arnold and Ezra Gayawan and Hyolim Kang and Jong-Hoon Kim and Gemma Nedjati Gilani and Anne Cori and Han Fu and Mark Jit and Rudzani Muloiwa and Allison Portnoy and Caroline Trotter and Katy A. M. Gaythorpe},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.13923},
year = {2024}
}
Comments
19 pages including references and abstract, 1 figure