English

How to detect a salami slicer: a stochastic controller-stopper game with unknown competition

Optimization and Control 2020-10-09 v1 Probability

Abstract

We consider a stochastic game of control and stopping specified in terms of a process Xt=θΛt+WtX_t=-\theta \Lambda_t+W_t, representing the holdings of Player 1, where WW is a Brownian motion, θ\theta is a Bernoulli random variable indicating whether Player 2 is active or not, and Λ\Lambda is a non-decreasing process representing the accumulated "theft" or "fraud" performed by Player 2 (if active) against Player 1. Player 1 cannot observe θ\theta or Λ\Lambda directly, but can merely observe the path of the process XX and may choose a stopping rule τ\tau to deactivate Player 2 at a cost MM. Player 1 thus does not know if she is the victim of fraud and operates in this sense under unknown competition. Player 2 can observe both θ\theta and WW and seeks to choose the fraud strategy Λ\Lambda that maximizes the expected discounted amount E[θ0τersdΛs],{\mathbb E} \left [\theta\int _0^{\tau} e^{-rs} d\Lambda_s \right ], whereas Player 1 seeks to choose the stopping strategy τ\tau so as to minimize the expected discounted cost E[θ0τersdΛs+erτMI{τ<}].{\mathbb E} \left [\theta\int _0^{\tau} e^{-rs} d\Lambda_s + e^{-r\tau}M{\mathbb I}_{\{\tau<\infty\}} \right ]. This non-zero-sum game appears to be novel and is motivated by applications in fraud detection; it combines filtering (detection), non-singular control, stopping, strategic features (games) and asymmetric information. We derive Nash equilibria for this game; for some parameter values we find an equilibrium in pure strategies, and for other parameter values we find an equilibrium by allowing for randomized stopping strategies.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2010.03619,
  title  = {How to detect a salami slicer: a stochastic controller-stopper game with unknown competition},
  author = {Erik Ekström and Kristoffer Lindensjö and Marcus Olofsson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2010.03619},
  year   = {2020}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-23T19:08:44.887Z