Forecasting Cryptocurrency Staking Rewards
Abstract
This research explores a relatively unexplored area of predicting cryptocurrency staking rewards, offering potential insights to researchers and investors. We investigate two predictive methodologies: a) a straightforward sliding-window average, and b) linear regression models predicated on historical data. The findings reveal that ETH staking rewards can be forecasted with an RMSE within 0.7% and 1.1% of the mean value for 1-day and 7-day look-aheads respectively, using a 7-day sliding-window average approach. Additionally, we discern diverse prediction accuracies across various cryptocurrencies, including SOL, XTZ, ATOM, and MATIC. Linear regression is identified as superior to the moving-window average for perdicting in the short term for XTZ and ATOM. The results underscore the generally stable and predictable nature of staking rewards for most assets, with MATIC presenting a noteworthy exception.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2401.10931,
title = {Forecasting Cryptocurrency Staking Rewards},
author = {Sauren Gupta and Apoorva Hathi Katharaki and Yifan Xu and Bhaskar Krishnamachari and Rajarshi Gupta},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.10931},
year = {2024}
}
Comments
9 pages, 18 figures