English

Extremes of regularly varying stochastic volatility fields

Probability 2023-01-25 v1

Abstract

We consider a stationary stochastic volatility field YvZvY_vZ_v with vZdv\in\mathbb{Z}^d, where ZZ is regularly varying and YY has lighter tails and is independent of ZZ. We make - relative to existing literature - very general assumptions on the dependence structure of both fields. In particular this allows YY to be non-ergodic, in contrast to the typical assumption that it is i.i.d., and ZZ to be given by an infinite moving average. Considering the stochastic volatility field on a (rather general) sequence of increasing index sets, we show the existence and form of a YY-dependent extremal functional generalizing the classical extremal index. More precisely, conditioned on the field YY, the extremal functional shows exactly how the extremal clustering of the (conditional) stochastic volatility field is given in terms of the extremal clustering of the regularly varying field ZZ and the realization of YY. Secondly, we construct two different cluster counting processes on a fixed, full-dimensional set with boundary of Lebesgue measure zero: By means of a coordinate-dependent upscaling of subsets, we systematically count the number of relevant clusters with an extreme observation. We show that both cluster processes converge to a Poisson point process with intensity given in terms of the extremal functional.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2301.10113,
  title  = {Extremes of regularly varying stochastic volatility fields},
  author = {Mads Stehr and Anders Rønn-Nielsen},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.10113},
  year   = {2023}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T08:18:48.297Z