English

Explicit Bivariate Rate Functions for Large Deviations in AR(1) and MA(1) Processes with Gaussian Innovations

Probability 2021-02-22 v1 Dynamical Systems Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

We investigate large deviations properties for centered stationary AR(1) and MA(1) processes with independent Gaussian innovations, by giving the explicit bivariate rate functions for the sequence of random vectors (Sn)nN=(n1(k=1nXk,k=1nXk2))nN(\boldsymbol{S}_n)_{n \in \N} = \left(n^{-1}(\sum_{k=1}^n X_k, \sum_{k=1}^n X_k^2)\right)_{n \in \N}. In the AR(1) case, we also give the explicit rate function for the bivariate random sequence (\Wn)n2=(n1(k=1nXk2,k=2nXkXk+1))n2(\W_n)_{n \geq 2} = \left(n^{-1}(\sum_{k=1}^n X_k^2, \sum_{k=2}^n X_k X_{k+1})\right)_{n \geq 2}. Via Contraction Principle, we provide explicit rate functions for the sequences (n1k=1nXk)nN(n^{-1} \sum_{k=1}^n X_k)_{n \in \N}, (n1k=1nXk2)n2(n^{-1} \sum_{k=1}^n X_k^2)_{n \geq 2} and (n1k=2nXkXk+1)n2(n^{-1} \sum_{k=2}^n X_k X_{k+1})_{n \geq 2}, as well. In the AR(1) case, we present a new proof for an already known result on the explicit deviation function for the Yule-Walker estimator.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2102.09637,
  title  = {Explicit Bivariate Rate Functions for Large Deviations in AR(1) and MA(1) Processes with Gaussian Innovations},
  author = {M. J. Karling and A. O. Lopes and S. R. C. Lopes},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2102.09637},
  year   = {2021}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-23T23:18:29.628Z