English

Estimation, inference and model selection for jump regression models

Methodology 2026-02-26 v1

Abstract

We consider regression models with data of the type yi=m(xi)+εiy_i=m(x_i)+\varepsilon_i, where the m(x)m(x) curve is taken locally constant, with unknown levels and jump points. We investigate the large-sample properties of the minimum least squares estimators, finding in particular that jump point parameters and level parameters are estimated with respectively nn-rate precision and n\sqrt{n}-rate precision, where nn is sample size. Bayes solutions are investigated as well and found to be superior. We then construct jump information criteria, respectively AJIC and BJIC, for selecting the right number of jump points from data. This is done by following the line of arguments that lead to the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria AIC and BIC, but which here lead to different formulae due to the different type of large-sample approximations involved.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.21663,
  title  = {Estimation, inference and model selection for jump regression models},
  author = {Steffen Grønneberg and Gudmund Hermansen and Nils Lid Hjort},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.21663},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

33 pages, 3 figures; Statistical Research Report, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, from June 2014, and arXiv'd February 2026. This paper constituted a part of the doctoral dissertations for respectively Gudmund Hermansen and Steffen Gr{\o}nneberg. An extended and polished version will be written up for journal publication

R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:51:29.416Z