English

Earthquakes big and small: same physics, different boundary conditions

Geophysics 2024-11-05 v2

Abstract

Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length LL. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also self-similar, scaling with LcL_c in space and Lc/ClimL_c/C_{lim} in time (where LcL_c is the breakout patch length and ClimC_{lim} the limiting rupture velocity in the subsonic regime). Rupture acceleration in the breakout phase is slower for larger initial breakout patches LcL_c. Because small faults cannot host large breakout patches, a large and slower initial breakout may be indicative of a potentially large final earthquake magnitude. Initial moment rate M˙o\dot{M}_o also grows slower for larger LcL_c, therefore it may reflect fault dimensions and carry a probabilistic forecast of magnitude as suggested in some Early Warning studies. This result does not violate causality and is fully compatible with the shared fundamental, self-similar physics across all the magnitude spectrum.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2411.00544,
  title  = {Earthquakes big and small: same physics, different boundary conditions},
  author = {Stefan Nielsen},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.00544},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

22 pages including supplementary information at bottom of article, 12 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-28T19:44:10.934Z