Distributed Coordination of Deferrable Loads: A Real-time Market with Self-fulfilling Forecasts

Increased uptake of variable renewable generation and further electrification of energy demand necessitate efficient coordination of flexible demand resources to make most efficient use of power system assets. Flexible electrical loads are typically small, numerous, heterogeneous and owned by self-interested agents. Considering the multi-temporal nature of flexibility and the uncertainty involved, scheduling them is a complex task. This paper proposes a forecast-mediated real-time market-based control approach (F-MBC) for cost minimizing coordination of uninterruptible time-shiftable (i.e. deferrable) loads. F-MBC is scalable, privacy preserving, and usable by device agents with small computational power. Moreover, F-MBC is proven to overcome the challenge of mutually conflicting decisions from equivalent devices. Simulations in a simplified but challenging case study show that F-MBC produces near-optimal behaviour over multiple time-steps.