English

Detecting Localized Density Anomalies in Multivariate Data via Coin-Flip Statistics

Machine Learning 2026-05-18 v3 Machine Learning

Abstract

Detecting localized differences between two samples is a central task in scientific data analysis, required for the identification of signal events, regime changes, or model mismatch. We introduce EagleEye, a method that pinpoints local over- and under-densities in multivariate feature spaces. EagleEye assigns each point an anomaly score by encoding its ordered k-nearest-neighbour list as a binary membership sequence and testing whether the cumulative number of successes in this sequence is consistent with a binomial (coin-flipping) null model. In the presence of a genuine local anomaly, neighbours will preferentially belong to one of the two datasts, yielding an excess of ``successes'' relative to the binomial null model. These local, pointwise detections are consolidated into interpretable anomaly sets through a deterministic refinement procedure that can also estimate the irreducible background and local density anomaly purity. We demonstrate EagleEye's efficacy in three scenarios. We first consider an artificial data example with known localized over- and under-densities. Second, we demonstrate how EagleEye may be used for new physics searches at particle collider experiments in the presence of systematic background modelling differences. Finally, we conduct a climate analysis study that reveals localized changes in spatiotemporal temperature-pattern recurrence.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2503.23927,
  title  = {Detecting Localized Density Anomalies in Multivariate Data via Coin-Flip Statistics},
  author = {Sebastian Springer and Andre Scaffidi and Maximilian Autenrieth and Gabriella Contardo and Alessandro Laio and Roberto Trotta and Heikki Haario},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2503.23927},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Code Availability: The code used to generate the results of this study is available at GitHub via the link: https://github.com/sspring137/EagleEye

R2 v1 2026-06-28T22:40:20.270Z