English

Cram\'{e}r's moderate deviations for martingales with applications

Probability 2025-03-04 v2 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

Let (ξi,Fi)i1(\xi_i,\mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq1} be a sequence of martingale differences. Set Xn=i=1nξiX_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \xi_i and Xn=i=1nE(ξi2Fi1). \langle X \rangle_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{E}(\xi_i^2|\mathcal{F}_{i-1}). We prove Cram\'er's moderate deviation expansions for P(Xn/Xnx)\displaystyle \mathbf{P}(X_n/\sqrt{\langle X\rangle_n} \geq x) and P(Xn/EXn2x)\displaystyle \mathbf{P}(X_n/\sqrt{ \mathbf{E}X_n^2} \geq x) as n.n\to\infty. Our results extend the classical Cram\'{e}r result to the cases of normalized martingales Xn/XnX_n/\sqrt{\langle X\rangle_n} and standardized martingales Xn/EXn2X_n/\sqrt{ \mathbf{E}X_n^2}, with martingale differences satisfying the conditional Bernstein condition. Applications to elephant random walks and autoregressive processes are also discussed.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2204.02562,
  title  = {Cram\'{e}r's moderate deviations for martingales with applications},
  author = {Xiequan Fan and Qi-Man Shao},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.02562},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

30 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-24T10:39:18.683Z