Correlations in the Bond-Future Market
Abstract
We analyze the time series of overnight returns for the bund and btp futures exchanged at LIFFE (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one-dimensional symbolic-dynamics random walk: The `bond walk'. During the considered period (October 1991 - January 1994) the bund-future market opened earlier than the btp-future one. The crosscorrelations between the two bond walks, as well as estimates of the conditional probability, show that they are not independent; however each walk can be modeled by means of a trinomial probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that it is necessary to take into account the bivariate dependence in order to properly reproduce the statistical properties of the real-world data. Various investment strategies have been devised to exploit the `prior' information obtained by the aforementioned analysis.
Cite
@article{arxiv.cond-mat/9903220,
title = {Correlations in the Bond-Future Market},
author = {Gianaurelio Cuniberti and Marco Raberto and Enrico Scalas},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/9903220},
year = {2008}
}
Comments
10 pages, 5 figures, LaTeX2e, to be published in Physica A