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CLUE: Neural Networks Calibration via Learning Uncertainty-Error alignment

Machine Learning 2025-05-30 v1 Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in scalability, differentiability, and generalization across domains. In this work, we introduce CLUE (Calibration via Learning Uncertainty-Error Alignment), a novel approach that explicitly aligns predicted uncertainty with observed error during training, grounded in the principle that well-calibrated models should produce uncertainty estimates that match their empirical loss. CLUE adopts a novel loss function that jointly optimizes predictive performance and calibration, using summary statistics of uncertainty and loss as proxies. The proposed method is fully differentiable, domain-agnostic, and compatible with standard training pipelines. Through extensive experiments on vision, regression, and language modeling tasks, including out-of-distribution and domain-shift scenarios, we demonstrate that CLUE achieves superior calibration quality and competitive predictive performance with respect to state-of-the-art approaches without imposing significant computational overhead.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2505.22803,
  title  = {CLUE: Neural Networks Calibration via Learning Uncertainty-Error alignment},
  author = {Pedro Mendes and Paolo Romano and David Garlan},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.22803},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T02:47:16.514Z