English

Change point estimation for a stochastic heat equation

Statistics Theory 2026-03-06 v2 Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

We study a change point model based on a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) corresponding to the heat equation governed by the weighted Laplacian Δϑ=ϑ\Delta_\vartheta = \nabla\vartheta\nabla, where ϑ=ϑ(x)\vartheta=\vartheta(x) is a space-dependent diffusivity. As a basic problem the domain (0,1)(0,1) is considered with a piecewise constant diffusivity with a jump at an unknown point τ\tau. Based on local measurements of the solution in space with resolution δ\delta over a finite time horizon, we construct a simultaneous M-estimator for the diffusivity values and the change point. The change point estimator converges at rate δ\delta, while the diffusivity constants can be recovered with convergence rate δ3/2\delta^{3/2}. Moreover, when the diffusivity parameters are known and the jump height vanishes with the spatial resolution tending to zero, we derive a limit theorem for the change point estimator and identify the limiting distribution. For the mathematical analysis, a precise understanding of the SPDE with discontinuous ϑ\vartheta, tight concentration bounds for quadratic functionals in the solution, and a generalisation of classical M-estimators are developed.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2307.10960,
  title  = {Change point estimation for a stochastic heat equation},
  author = {Markus Reiß and Claudia Strauch and Lukas Trottner},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2307.10960},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T11:36:03.620Z