Accurate and efficient simulation-based inference for massive black-hole binaries with LISA
Abstract
We develop an accurate simulation-based inference framework for high-mass () black-hole binaries observable by LISA. The method is implemented within the DINGO gravitational-wave parameter-estimation code, extending its application from ground-based detectors to the LISA band. We train a normalizing-flow model using aligned-spin higher-mode waveform models and a low-frequency approximation of the detector response. After sampling, we importance-sample to the true posterior. We validate performance on simulated signals spanning the signal-to-noise regimes relevant for LISA observations and benchmark our new DINGO implementation against standard methods. We report robust agreement in the inferred posterior distributions up to signal-to-noise ratios of . At higher signal-to-noise ratios of , we observe a reduction in sampling efficiency, while still yielding unbiased and tightly localized posteriors that can be used as a starting point for follow-up with traditional methods.The trained flow can generate 20 thousand posterior samples in less than a minute, establishing DINGO as a promising neural inference framework for rapid full-parameter estimation of massive black-hole binaries in the LISA band. The likelihood-free nature of this approach allows for straightforward generalizations, including a time-dependent detector response, non-stationary noise artifacts such as gaps and glitches, and low-latency parameter estimations.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2603.20431,
title = {Accurate and efficient simulation-based inference for massive black-hole binaries with LISA},
author = {Alice Spadaro and Jonathan Gair and Davide Gerosa and Stephen R. Green and Riccardo Buscicchio and Nihar Gupte and Rodrigo Tenorio and Samuel Clyne and Michael Pürrer and Natalia Korsakova},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.20431},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
13 pages, 6 figures, 1 table