English

A Model for Birdwatching and other Chronological Sampling Activities

Probability 2022-05-13 v1 Combinatorics

Abstract

In many real life situations one has mm types of random events happening in chronological order within a time interval and one wishes to predict various milestones about these events or their subsets. An example is birdwatching. Suppose we can observe up to mm different types of birds during a season. At any moment a bird of type ii is observed with some probability. There are many natural questions a birdwatcher may have: how many observations should one expect to perform before recording all types of birds? Is there a time interval where the researcher is most likely to observe all species? Or, what is the likelihood that several species of birds will be observed at overlapping time intervals? Our paper answers these questions using a new model based on random interval graphs. This model is a natural follow up to the famous coupon collector's problem.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2205.05743,
  title  = {A Model for Birdwatching and other Chronological Sampling Activities},
  author = {Jesús A. De Loera and Edgar Jaramillo-Rodriguez and Deborah Oliveros and Antonio J. Torres},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.05743},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

26 pages, 8 figures. To be published in The American Mathematical Monthly

R2 v1 2026-06-24T11:14:46.108Z