While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in text generation and reasoning, their ability to simulate human decision-making -- particularly in political contexts -- remains an open question. However, modeling voter behavior presents unique challenges due to limited voter-level data, evolving political landscapes, and the complexity of human reasoning. In this study, we develop a theory-driven, multi-step reasoning framework that integrates demographic, temporal and ideological factors to simulate voter decision-making at scale. Using synthetic personas calibrated to real-world voter data, we conduct large-scale simulations of recent U.S. presidential elections. Our method significantly improves simulation accuracy while mitigating model biases. We examine its robustness by comparing performance across different LLMs. We further investigate the challenges and constraints that arise from LLM-based political simulations. Our work provides both a scalable framework for modeling political decision-making behavior and insights into the promise and limitations of using LLMs in political science research.
@article{arxiv.2412.15291,
title = {A Large-Scale Simulation on Large Language Models for Decision-Making in Political Science},
author = {Chenxiao Yu and Jinyi Ye and Yuangang Li and Zheng Li and Emilio Ferrara and Xiyang Hu and Yue Zhao},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.15291},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2411.03321 This version adds a new model to our experimental setup, modifies the paper's main discussion, and updates the authorship list