A Bayesian Perspective on Evidence for Evolving Dark Energy

The DESI Collaboration reports a significant preference for a dynamic dark energy model ($w_0w_a$CDM) over the cosmological constant ($\Lambda$CDM) when their data are combined with other frontier cosmological probes. We present a direct Bayesian model comparison using nested sampling to compute the Bayesian evidence, revealing a contrasting conclusion: for the key combination of the DESI DR2 BAO and the Planck CMB data, we find the Bayesian evidence modestly favours $\Lambda$CDM (log-Bayes factor $\ln B = -0.57{\scriptstyle\pm0.26}$), in contrast to the collaboration's 3.1$\sigma$ frequentist significance in favoring $w_0w_a$CDM. Extending this analysis to also combine with the DES-SN5YR supernova catalogue, our Bayesian analysis reaches a significance of $3.07{\scriptstyle\pm0.10}\,\sigma$ in favour of $w_0w_a$CDM. By performing a comprehensive tension analysis, employing five complementary metrics, we pinpoint the origin: a significant ($2.95{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04}\,\sigma$), low-dimensional tension between DESI DR2 and DES-SN5YR that is present only within the $\Lambda$CDM framework. The $w_0w_a$CDM model is preferred precisely because its additional parameters act to resolve this specific dataset conflict. Replacing DES-SN5YR with the recalibrated DES-Dovekie dataset, this tension is reduced and the three-probe Bayesian evidence for $w_0w_a$CDM vanishes ($\ln B = -0.30{\scriptstyle\pm0.19}$). The convergence of our findings with alternative statistical analyses suggests that the preference for dynamic dark energy is primarily driven by the resolution of inter-dataset tensions, warranting a cautious interpretation of its statistical significance.