Related papers: Extinction Rates for Fluctuation-Induced Metastabi…
We investigate extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling…
We present an explicit unified stochastic model of fluctuations in population size due to random birth, death, density-dependent competition and environmental fluctuations. Stochastic dynamics provide insight into small populations,…
In large but finite populations, weak demographic stochasticity due to random birth and death events can lead to population extinction. The process is analogous to the escaping problem of trapped particles under random forces. Methods…
Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes. If a population is isolated, intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a…
We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin)…
Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and…
We study simple stochastic scenarios, based on birth-and-death Markovian processes, that describe populations with Allee effect, to account for the role of demographic stochasticity. In the mean-field deterministic limit we recover…
Stochastic fluctuations are central to the understanding of extinction dynamics. In the context of population models they allow for the description of the transition from the vicinity of a non-trivial fixed point of the deterministic…
Deterministic evolutionary game dynamics can lead to stable coexistences of different types. Stochasticity, however, drives the loss of such coexistences. This extinction is usually accompanied by population size fluctuations. We…
Momentum-space representation renders an interesting perspective to theory of large fluctuations in populations undergoing Markovian stochastic gain-loss processes. This representation is obtained when the master equation for the…
Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system…
We consider a stochastic logistic growth model involving both birth and death rates in the drift and diffusion coefficients for which extinction eventually occurs almost surely. The associated complete Fokker-Planck equation describing the…
Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase…
Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes…
Models of population growth and extinction are an increasingly popular subject of study. However, consequences of stochasticity and noise in shaping distributions and outcomes are not sufficiently explored. Here we consider a distributed…
This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a "refuge" as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations…
In recent years non-demographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, non-demographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a-priori unknown burst size, or…
Understanding the mechanisms governing population extinctions is of key importance to many problems in ecology and evolution. Stochastic factors are known to play a central role in extinction, but the interactions between a population's…
Extinction is the ultimate absorbing state of any stochastic birth-death process, hence the time to extinction is an important characteristic of any natural population. Here we consider logistic and logistic-like systems under the combined…
Environmental noise can cause an exponential reduction in the mean time to extinction (MTE) of an isolated population. We study this effect on an example of a stochastic birth-death process with rates modulated by a colored Gaussian noise.…