Related papers: Epidemic outbreaks on structured populations
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…
We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all…
I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…
We present a detailed analytical and numerical study for the spreading of infections in complex population networks with acquired immunity. We show that the large connectivity fluctuations usually found in these networks strengthen…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been…
Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…