Related papers: A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…
Seasonal influenza kills hundreds of thousands every year, with multiple constantly-changing strains in circulation at any given time. A high mutation rate enables the influenza virus to evade recognition by the human immune system,…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
The SIR model is the cornerstone model for mathematical epidemiology, explaining key epidemic features such as the second-order transition between disease-free and epidemic states, the initial exponential growth of outbreaks or the…
Deterministic models are developed for the spatial spread of epidemic diseases in geographical settings. The models are focused on outbreaks that arise from a small number of infected hosts imported into sub-regions of the geographical…
Empirical records of epidemics reveal that fluctuations are important factors for the spread and prevalence of infectious diseases. The exact manner in which fluctuations affect spreading dynamics remains poorly known. Recent analytical and…
We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…
Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…
We propose a generative model and an inference scheme for epidemic processes on dynamic, adaptive contact networks. Network evolution is formulated as a link-Markovian process, which is then coupled to an individual-level stochastic SIR…
Multi-strain competition on networks is observed in many contexts, including infectious disease ecology, information dissemination or behavioral adaptation to epidemics. Despite a substantial body of research has been developed considering…
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a…
This work consists of an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with an opinion dynamics. Our objective was to study how disease risk perception can influence opinions about vaccination and therefore the spreading of the disease.…
This work introduces a novel epidemiological model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains, reinfections due to waning immunity response over time and an optimal control formulation. This enables us to derive optimal mitigation…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The spreading of infectious diseases with and without immunization of individuals can be modeled by stochastic processes that exhibit a transition between an active phase of epidemic spreading and an absorbing phase, where the disease dies…
We show that the simplest stochastic epidemiological models with spatial correlations exhibit two types of oscillatory behaviour in the endemic phase. In a large parameter range, the oscillations are due to resonant amplification of…