Related papers: Recurrent epidemics in small world networks
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…
We investigate the role of global mixing in epidemic processes. We first construct a simplified model of the SIR epidemic using a realistic population distribution. Using this model, we examine possible mechanisms for destruction of spatial…
In network-based SIS models of infectious disease transmission, infection can only occur between directly connected individuals. This constraint naturally gives rise to spatial correlations between the states of neighboring nodes, as the…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
The study of epidemic models plays an important role in mathematical epidemiology. There are many researches on epidemic models using ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations or stochastic differential equations. In…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
In this paper, we outline the theory of epidemic percolation networks and their use in the analysis of stochastic SIR epidemic models on undirected contact networks. We then show how the same theory can be used to analyze stochastic SIR…
Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…