Related papers: Demographic trajectories for supercentenarians
Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…
Machine learning analysis of neuroimaging data can accurately predict chronological age in healthy people and deviations from healthy brain ageing have been associated with cognitive impairment and disease. Here we sought to further…
In recent years, there are various methods of estimating Biological Age (BA) have been developed. Especially with the development of machine learning (ML), there are more and more types of BA predictions, and the accuracy has been greatly…
A stochastic genetic model for biological aging is introduced bridging the gap between the bit-string Penna model and the Pletcher-Neuhauser approach. The phenomenon of exponentially increasing mortality function at intermediate ages and…
While unsupervised variational autoencoders (VAE) have become a powerful tool in neuroimage analysis, their application to supervised learning is under-explored. We aim to close this gap by proposing a unified probabilistic model for…
Although species longevity is subject to a diverse range of selective forces, the mortality curves of a wide variety of organisms are rather similar. We argue that aging and its universal characteristics may have evolved by means of a…
Today, as the aging of the world accelerates, it is an urgent task to clarify factors that prevent ageism. In this study, using hierarchical multiple regression analysis of data from 40,869 people from 55 countries collected in the World…
We address the question how accurately stellar ages can be determined by stellar evolution theory. We select the star with the best observational material available - our Sun. We determine the solar age by fitting solar evolution models to…
As we gain access to a greater depth and range of health-related information about individuals, three questions arise: (1) Can we build better models to predict individual-level risk of ill health? (2) How much data do we need to…
We study a universal object for the genealogy of a sample in populations with mutations: the critical birth-death process with Poissonian mutations, conditioned on its population size at a fixed time horizon. We show how this process arises…
We use life annuity prices to extract information about human longevity using a framework that links the term structure of mortality and interest rates. We invert the model and perform nonlinear least squares to obtain implied longevity…
Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be…
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35…
A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…
We study supercritical age-structured branching models starting from a single particle with a random lifetime, where the reproduction law depends on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth…
We show that a simple nonlinear differential equation (originally studied in the physics of disordered systems) is able to mathematically describe the global population growth over the past 12000 years. Different regimes of population…
A new model for generating survival trajectories and data based on applying an autoencoder of a specific structure is proposed. It solves three tasks. First, it provides predictions in the form of the expected event time and the survival…
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…
Machines provide a longstanding model for how organisms accumulate damage, age, and die. However, the large-scale observation and analysis of complex machine populations under real-world conditions is routinely missing from this framework.…
Predicting trajectories of pedestrians is quintessential for autonomous robots which share the same environment with humans. In order to effectively and safely interact with humans, trajectory prediction needs to be both precise and…