Related papers: Demographic trajectories for supercentenarians
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…
In this paper we consider a generalization to the asexual version of the Penna model for biological aging, where we take a continuous time limit. The genotype associated to each individual is an interval of real numbers over which Dirac…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…
Great apes, the other living members of our hominid family, become decrepit before the age of forty and rarely outlive their fertile years. In contrast, women - even in high mortality hunter-gatherer populations - usually remain healthy and…
We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect…
We study age-structured branching models with reproduction law depending on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth and its remaining lifetime decreases at the unit speed. The models…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…
The population is composed of individuals characterised by their genetic strings, phenotypes and ages. We discuss the influence of probabilities of survival of the individuals on the dynamics and phenotypic variability of the population. We…
We introduce a broad class of spatial models to describe how spatially heterogeneous populations live, die, and reproduce. Individuals are represented by points of a point measure, whose birth and death rates can depend both on spatial…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…
The worldwide population is aging and countries are facing ongoing challenges in meeting the transportation demand of the elderly. In this study, we investigate the movement characteristics of elders in the straight corridor and compare…
Estimating the human longevity and computing of life expectancy are central to the population dynamics. These aspects were studied seriously by scientists since fifteenth century, including renowned astronomer Edmund Halley. From basic…
Survival analysis studies and predicts the time of death, or other singular unrepeated events, based on historical data, while the true time of death for some instances is unknown. Survival trees enable the discovery of complex nonlinear…
By introducing the notions of living and dead nodes a new model of random tree evolution with continuous time parameter has been constructed. It is assumed that two random variables, the lifetime and the offspring number of living nodes…
Following the recent publication of our book on Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-65142-2) we provide this…
We model the effects of disease and other exogenous damage during human aging. Even when the exogenous damage is repaired at the end of acute disease, propagated secondary damage remains. We consider both short-term mortality effects due to…
The development of sport performances in the future is a subject of myth and disagreement among experts. As arguments favoring and opposing such methodology were discussed, other publications empirically showed that the past development of…
In astrophysics, we often aim to estimate one or more parameters for each member object in a population and study the distribution of the fitted parameters across the population. In this paper, we develop novel methods that allow us to take…