Related papers: Plausible models for propagation of the SARS virus
A simplified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model and a small-world model are applied to analyse the spread and control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) for Hong Kong in early 2003. From data available in mid April…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical…
In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (``SEIJR'') to extract average properties and rate constants…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
In this paper, we use a series of small world networks to simulate the epidemic spreading in the real world. To make our model more similar to the real world, we employ a parameter $p_{move}$ to denote its moving probability, which…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a…
Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
Data-driven epidemic simulation helps better policymaking. Compared with macro-scale simulations driven by statistical data, individual-level GPS data can afford finer and spatialized results. However, the big GPS data, usually collected…
The use of network theory to model disease propagation on populations introduces important elements of reality to the classical epidemiological models. The use of random geometric graphs (RGG) is one of such network models that allows for…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
In this paper we study the household-structure SIS epidemic spreading on general complex networks. The household structure gives us the way to distinguish inner and the outer infection rate. Unlike household-structure models on homogenous…
The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…
The ability to actually implement epidemic models is a crucial stake for public institutions, as they may be overtaken by the increasing complexity of current models and sometimes tend to revert to less elaborate models such as the SIR. In…
Using the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on networks, we investigate the problem of inferring the class of the underlying network when epidemic data is only available at population-level (i.e. the number of…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…