English
Related papers

Related papers: On the El-Nino Teleconnection to Spring Precipitat…

200 papers

We study the spatio-temporal features of extremal sub-daily precipitation data over the Piave river basin in northeast Italy using a rich database of observed hourly rainfall. Empirical evidence suggests that both the marginal and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-26 Dáire Healy , Ilaria Prosdocimi , Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-15 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang

To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Erhard Reschenhofer

Different to classical theories which emphasize east--west feedback along the equator, data analyses via the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method support a new viewpoint that the El Ni\~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-05 Jin-Liang Wang

Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Bernd Krauskopf , Jan Sieber

We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-22 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-08-04 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini

This article analyzes the characteristics of the rainy season and extreme temperatures recorded in the state of Jalisco, Mexico, during 2024. Using ERA5 and CHIRPS reanalysis data and observations from thirteen meteorological stations,…

We present direct observations of zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 planetary wave activity in the mesopause region derived from a longitudinal chain of high-latitude Northern Hemisphere (51-66$^{\circ}$N) Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars.…

Space Physics · Physics 2016-08-08 Nora H. Stray , Rosmarie J. deWit , Patrick J. Espy , Robert E. Hibbins

Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…

We study the evolution of continental, zonal and seasonal land temperature anomalies especially in the early 20th century warming (ETCW) period, using principal component analysis (PCA) and reverse arrangement trend analysis. ETCW is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-27 Jouni Takalo , Kalevi Mursula

Observations of planets throughout our Solar System have revealed that the Earth is not alone in possessing natural, inter-annual atmospheric cycles. The equatorial middle atmospheres of the Earth, Jupiter and Saturn all exhibit a…

Severe thunderstorms can have devastating impacts. Concurrently high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are known to be conducive to severe weather, so high values of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-31 Erwan Koch , Jonathan Koh , Anthony C. Davison , Chiara Lepore , Michael K. Tippett

Record-breaking temperature events are now frequently in the news, proffered as evidence of climate change, and often bring significant economic and human impacts. Our previous work undertook the first substantial spatial modelling…

We analyse the transitions between established phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by surveying the daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index from an entropic viewpoint using the framework of stochastic Statistical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-15 Sílvio M. Duarte Queirós

The study of complex systems in nature is essential to understand the interactions between different elements and how they influence one another. Complex network theory is a powerful tool that helps us to analyze these interactions and gain…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Aurelienne A. S. Jorge , Douglas Uba , Alex A. Fernandes , Izabelly C. Costa , Leonardo B. L. Santos

We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-04-16 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang , Jin-Yi Yu

With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-18 Xiaoyang Xu , Yiqun Liu , Hanqing Chao , Youcheng Luo , Hai Chu , Lei Chen , Junping Zhang , Leiming Ma

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-31 Helge F. Goessling , Thomas Rackow , Thomas Jung