Related papers: The Signal Estimator Limit Setting Method

Bayesian optimisation has proven to be a powerful tool for expensive global black-box optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose new Bayesian optimisation variants of the popular Knowledge Gradient acquisition functions for problems…

We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Estimating percentiles of black-box deterministic functions with random inputs is a challenging task when the number of function evaluations is severely restricted, which is typical for computer experiments. This article proposes two new…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Downsampling or under-sampling is a technique that is utilized in the context of large and highly imbalanced classification models. We study optimal downsampling for imbalanced classification using generalized linear models (GLMs). We…

Most feature detectors such as edge detectors or circle finders are statistical, in the sense that they decide at each point in an image about the presence of a feature, this paper describes the use of Bayesian feature detectors.

Importance Sampling (IS) is a method for approximating expectations under a target distribution using independent samples from a proposal distribution and the associated importance weights. In many applications, the target distribution is…

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

We derive rates of contraction of posterior distributions on nonparametric models resulting from sieve priors. The aim of the paper is to provide general conditions to get posterior rates when the parameter space has a general structure,…

The spectral gradient method is known to be a powerful low-cost tool for solving large-scale optimization problems. In this paper, our goal is to exploit its advantages in the stochastic optimization framework, especially in the case of…

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

We consider the problem of estimating cross-spectral quantities in the low-frequency regime, where long observation times limit averaging over large ensembles of periodograms, thereby preventing the use of approximate Gaussian statistics.…

The objective Bayesian treatment of a model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as "signal" and "background" and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered. It is shown that the…

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a…

The method of location and spectral estimation of weak signals on a noise background is being considered. The method is based on the optimized on order and noise dispersion autoregressive model of a sought signal. A new approach of model…

Contrastive learning produces coherent semantic feature embeddings by encouraging positive samples to cluster closely while separating negative samples. However, existing contrastive learning methods lack principled guarantees on coverage…

Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…