Related papers: Tracking down the ENSO delayed oscillator with an …
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based on archetypal…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
This study derives a complete set of equatorially confined wave solutions from an anelastic equation set with the complete Coriolis terms, which include both the vertical and meridional planetary vorticity. The propagation mechanism can…
Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…
We study the relationship between the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…
Artificial intelligence has advanced global weather forecasting, outperforming traditional numerical models in both accuracy and computational efficiency. Nevertheless, extending predictions beyond subseasonal timescales requires the…
We improve upon two key aspects of the Menter shear stress transport (SST) turbulence model: (1) We propose a more robust adverse pressure gradient sensor based on the strength of the pressure gradient in the direction of the local mean…
A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations…
Oil slicks are widely distributed in the ocean today, as a kind of coverage on sea surface, they became a part of ocean environment and affect their surroundings. A stochastic-dynamic theoretical model proposed in this work to illustrate…
The strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient observed in the tropical Pacific in recent decades is a regional climate change signal that may be outside the range of historical simulations with comprehensive climate…
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…
The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…
Revealing the ongoing changes in ocean dynamics and their impact on marine ecosystems requires the joint analysis of multiple variables. Yet, global observational records only cover a few decades, posing a challenge in the separation of…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…