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We consider the problem of choosing between parametric models for a discrete observable, taking a Bayesian approach in which the within-model prior distributions are allowed to be improper. In order to avoid the ambiguity in the marginal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio , Silvia Columbu

The computation of two Bayesian predictive distributions which are discrete mixtures of incomplete beta functions is considered. The number of iterations can easily become large for these distributions and thus, the accuracy of the result…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jacques Poitevineau , Bruno Lecoutre

This article presents a new spectral analysis approach for dispersion error and a methodology to numerically evaluate it. In practice, this new analysis allows the numerical study of dispersion errors on all types of mesh and for multiple…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 J. Ruano , A. Baez Vidal , F. X. Trias , J. Rigola

We expand the scope of the statistical notion of error probability, i.e., how often large deviations are observed in an experiment, in order to make it directly applicable to quantum tomography. We verify that the error probability can…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2011-01-24 Takanori Sugiyama , Peter S. Turner , Mio Murao

In this paper, a practical estimation method for a regression model is proposed using semiparametric efficient score functions applicable to data with various shapes of errors. First, I derive semiparametric efficient score vectors for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-23 Mijeong Kim

In this article pattern statistics of typical cubical cut and project sets are studied. We give estimates for the rate of convergence of appearances of patches to their asymptotic frequencies. We also give bounds for repetitivity and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-02-15 Alan Haynes , Antoine Julien , Henna Koivusalo , James Walton

Given the joint chances of a pair of random variables one can compute quantities of interest, like the mutual information. The Bayesian treatment of unknown chances involves computing, from a second order prior distribution and the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Marcus Hutter , Marco Zaffalon

The Poisson compound decision problem is a long-standing problem in statistics, where empirical Bayes methodologies are commonly used to estimate Poisson's means in static or batch domains. In this paper, we study the Poisson compound…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Stefano Favaro , Sandra Fortini

Randomization is a common technique used in clinical trials to eliminate potential bias and confounders in a patient population. Equal allocation to treatment groups is the standard due to its optimal efficiency in many cases. However, in…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-09 Thevaa Chandereng , Xiaodan Wei , Rick Chappell

We present an algorithmic approach to estimate the value distributions of random variables of probabilistic loops whose statistical moments are (partially) known. Based on these moments, we apply two statistical methods, Maximum Entropy and…

This paper reviews two main types of prediction interval methods under a parametric framework. First, we describe methods based on an (approximate) pivotal quantity. Examples include the plug-in, pivotal, and calibration methods. Then we…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 Qinglong Tian , Daniel J. Nordman , William Q. Meeker

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Kenta Takatsu , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Probability distributions produced by the cross-entropy loss for ordinal classification problems can possess undesired properties. We propose a straightforward technique to constrain discrete ordinal probability distributions to be unimodal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-23 Christopher Beckham , Christopher Pal

The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yingying Yang , Niloufar Dousti Mousavi , Zhou Yu , Jie Yang

We examine the problem of construction of confidence intervals within the basic single-parameter, single-iteration variation of the method of quasi-optimal weights. Two kinds of distortions of such intervals due to insufficiently large…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-05-27 A. D. Morozov , A. V. Lokhov , F. V. Tkachov

If several independent algorithms for a computer-calculated quantity exist, then one can expect their results (which differ because of numerical errors) to follow approximately Gaussian distribution. The mean of this distribution,…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2017-07-03 Andrej Liptaj

Stochastic iterative methods are useful in a variety of large-scale numerical linear algebraic, machine learning, and statistical problems, in part due to their low-memory footprint. They are frequently used in a variety of applications,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Toby Anderson , Max Collins , Jamie Haddock , Jackie Lok , Elizaveta Rebrova

This paper deals with the problem of accurately determining guaranteed suboptimal values of an unknown cost function on the basis of noisy measurements. We consider a set-valued variant to regression where, instead of finding a best…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Jaap Eising , Jorge Cortes

Data analysis in science, e.g., high-energy particle physics, is often subject to an intractable likelihood if the observables and observations span a high-dimensional input space. Typically the problem is solved by reducing the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-01-14 Stefan Wunsch , Simon Jörger , Roger Wolf , Günter Quast

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-21 Esther Denecke , Pavel Grigoriev , Roland Rau
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