Related papers: Volatility Dynamics of Wavelet-Filtered Stock Pric…
Financial Times Series such as stock price and exchange rates are, often, non-linear and non-stationary. Use of decomposition models has been found to improve the accuracy of predictive models. The paper proposes a hybrid approach…
In this study, we perform some analysis for the probability distributions in the space of frequency and time variables. However, in the domain of high frequencies, it behaves in such a way as the highly non-linear dynamics. The wavelet…
The correlation matrix formalism is used to study temporal aspects of the stock market evolution. This formalism allows to decompose the financial dynamics into noise as well as into some coherent repeatable intraday structures. The present…
We analyse the structure of the distribution of eigenvalues of the stock market correlation matrix with increasing length of the time series representing the price changes. We use 100 highly-capitalized stocks from the American market and…
This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…
Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer…
Based on a criterium of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…
In this paper, we present a method of estimating the volatility of a signal that displays stochastic noise (such as a risky asset traded on an open market) utilizing Linear Predictive Coding. The main purpose is to associate volatility with…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
Large variations in stock prices happen with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about existing models, which all fail to account for non-Gaussian statistics. We construct simple models of a stock market, and argue that the large…
Wavelets are waveform functions that describe transient and unstable variations, such as noises. In this work, we study the advantages of discrete and continuous wavelet transforms (DWT and CWT) of microlensing data to denoise them and…
There may be structural principles pertaining to the general behavior of systems that lead to similarities in a variety of different contexts. Classic examples include the descriptive power of fractals, the importance of surface area to…
We study the statistical properties of volatility---a measure of how much the market is likely to fluctuate. We estimate the volatility by the local average of the absolute price changes. We analyze (a) the S&P 500 stock index for the…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
We consider discrete time models for asset prices with a stationary volatility process. We aim at estimating the multivariate density of this process at a set of consecutive time instants. A Fourier type deconvolution kernel density…
Oil price data have a complicated multi-scale structure that may vary with time. We use time-frequency analysis to identify the main features of these variations and, in particular, the regime shifts. The analysis is based on a…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
We study a market model in which the volatility of the stock may jump at a random time from a fixed value to another fixed value. This model was already described in the literature. We present a new approach to the problem, based on partial…