Related papers: Can we believe in high climate sensitivity?
Global warming is a major environmental concern of our times. It has been suggested that the planting of trees could constitute a way of mitigating the adverse effects of the increasing anthropogenic carbon emissions. We developed a simple…
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms…
Over the last few decades, climate scientists have devoted much effort to the development of large numerical models of the atmosphere and the ocean. While there is no question that such models provide important and useful information on…
There is great uncertainty about future climate conditions and the appropriate policies for managing interactions between the climate and the economy. We develop a multidimensional computational model to examine how uncertainties and risks…
Future sea-level rise poses nontrivial risks for many coastal communities. Managing these risks often relies on consensus projections like those provided by the IPCC. Yet, there is a growing awareness that the surrounding uncertainties may…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
It has been proposed that the successful inflationary description of density perturbations on cosmological scales is sensitive to the details of physics at extremely high (trans-Planckian) energies. We test this proposal by examining how…
In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…
Sensitivity analysis (SA) has much to offer for a very large class of applications, such as model selection, calibration, optimization, quality assurance and many others. Sensitivity analysis offers crucial contextual information regarding…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
In the outer regions of the habitable zone, the risk of transitioning into a globally frozen "snowball" state poses a threat to the habitability of planets with the capacity to host water-based life. We use a one-dimensional energy balance…
Scientists agree about the urgency of the problem of climate change. Most citizens, however, pay little attention to gradually increasing temperature levels. Growing numbers of natural disasters in the world might then play a fundamental…
Habitable planets are commonly imagined to be temperate planets like Earth, with areas of open ocean and warm land. In contrast, planets in snowball states, where oceans are entirely ice-covered, are believed to be inhospitable. However, we…
The field of Detection and Attribution is rapidly moving beyond weather and climate, and towards incorporating hazards and their impacts on natural and human systems. Here, we review the comprehensive literature base relevant for the UK…
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
While it is well-documented that climate change accepters and deniers have become increasingly polarized in the United States over time, there has been no large-scale examination of whether these individuals are prone to changing their…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying…
Temperature of a finite-sized system fluctuates due to the thermal fluctuations. However, a systematic mathematical framework for measuring or estimating the temperature is still underdeveloped. Here, we incorporate the estimation theory in…
Important issues about climate change are summarized and discussed: A large body of evidence shows that the world climate is getting warmer. Climate models give a consistent explanation of this observation once human-made emissions of…