Related papers: Volatility: a hidden Markov process in financial t…
We study the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model and observe that the model shows a multiscale behavior in the volatility autocorrelation. It also exhibits a leverage correlation and a probability profile for the…
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…
A new branch based on Markov processes is developing in the recent literature of financial time series modeling. In this paper, an Indexed Markov Chain has been used to model high frequency price returns of quoted firms. The peculiarity of…
Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher ($>$ two) order correlations, they offer a better measure…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
We solve the escape problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact expressions for the survival probability (which ammounts to solving the complete escape problem) as well as for the mean exit time. We also average the…
This paper investigates short-term behaviors of implied volatility of derivatives written on indexes in equity markets when the index processes are constructed by using a ranking procedure. Even in simple market settings where stock prices…
We investigate the problem of pricing derivatives under a fractional stochastic volatility model. We obtain an approximate expression of the derivative price where the stochastic volatility can be composed of deterministic functions of time…
In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market originally proposed in [1]. The model takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…
A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov…
This paper tends to define the quantitative relationship between the stock price and time as a time function. Based on the empirical evidence that the log-return of a stock is the series of white noise, a mathematical model of the integral…
The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within…
Exponential L\'evy processes can be used to model the evolution of various financial variables such as FX rates, stock prices, etc. Considerable efforts have been devoted to pricing derivatives written on underliers governed by such…
We have studied numerically the statistical mechanics of the dynamic phenomena, including money circulation and economic mobility, in some transfer models. The models on which our investigations were performed are the basic model proposed…
We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it…
The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…
We shortly review the statistical properties of the escape times, or hitting times, for stock price returns by using different models which describe the stock market evolution. We compare the probability function (PF) of these escape times…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
Recently, to account for low-frequency market dynamics, several volatility models, employing high-frequency financial data, have been developed. However, in financial markets, we often observe that financial volatility processes depend on…