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We consider the testing and estimation of change-points -- locations where the distribution abruptly changes -- in a data sequence. A new approach, based on scan statistics utilizing graphs representing the similarity between observations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-18 Hao Chen , Nancy Zhang

In this paper we introduce a novel framework for trajectory prediction of geospatial sequences using GraphTransformers. When viewed across several sequences, we observed that a graph structure automatically emerges between different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Pallavi Banerjee , Satyaki Chakraborty

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the underlying distribution of data. Detecting changes in a data stream is an important problem with many applications. In this paper, we are interested in changepoint detection algorithms which operate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Zhaohui Wang , Xiao Lin , Abhinav Mishra , Ram Sriharsha

Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-03-27 Michael Maier-Gerber , Michael Riemer , Andreas H. Fink , Peter Knippertz , Enrico Di Muzio , Ron McTaggart-Cowan

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-21 Chris Strickland , Robert Burdett , Robert Denham , Robert Kohn , Kerrie Mengersen

In many organisations, accurate forecasts are essential for making informed decisions for a variety of applications from inventory management to staffing optimization. Whatever forecasting model is used, changes in the underlying process…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Thomas Grundy , Rebecca Killick , Ivan Svetunkov

In this work, we propose a non-parametric and robust change detection algorithm to detect multiple change points in time series data under contamination. The contamination model is sufficiently general, in that, the most common model used…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-24 Sujay Bhatt , Guanhua Fang , Ping Li

Hurricanes rank among the most destructive natural hazards. They are complex phenomena that can cause both direct damage along their path and indirect impacts due to heavy rainfall and strong winds, with effects varying according to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-26 Manrique Camacho , Amanda Cedeño , Luis A. Barboza , Shu Wei Chou-Chen , Mario J. Gómez , Hugo G. Hidalgo

We consider determining change points in a time series of age-specific mortality and fertility curves observed over time. We propose two detection methods for identifying these change points. The first method uses a functional cumulative…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-04 Han Lin Shang

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Zifeng Zhao , Xiaokai Luo , Zongge Liu , Daren Wang

This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-19 Xueheng Shi , Claudie Beaulieu , Rebecca Killick , Robert Lund

In this paper, numerical analysis is carried out for a class of history-dependent variational-hemivariational inequalities arising in contact problems. Three different numerical treatments for temporal discretization are proposed to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-07 Shufen Wang , Wei Xu , Weimin Han , Wenbin Chen

Statistical change point (CP) detection methods typically rely on likelihood-based inference and ignore contextual information about plausible CP locations beyond the observed sequence. Although informative priors provide a natural way to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jonathon Jacobs , Shanshan Chen

Connected vehicles (CVs), because of the external connectivity with other CVs and connected infrastructure, are vulnerable to cyberattacks that can instantly compromise the safety of the vehicle itself and other connected vehicles and…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Sakib Mahmud Khan , Gurcan Comert , Mashrur Chowdhury

This paper describes a novel machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our multimodal framework, called Hurricast, efficiently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Léonard Boussioux , Cynthia Zeng , Théo Guénais , Dimitris Bertsimas

Recurrence plot based time series analysis is widely used to study changes and transitions in the dynamics of a system or temporal deviations from its overall dynamical regime. However, most studies do not discuss the significance of the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2013-06-05 Norbert Marwan , Stefan Schinkel , Jürgen Kurths

The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Shouwei Gao , Meiyan Gao , Yuepeng Li , Wenqian Dong

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-29 Melissa J. M. Turcotte , Nicholas A. Heard

We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-31 Otilia Boldea , Alastair R. Hall

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-28 Christian Kleiber