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We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
Consider an SI process on a graph $G$ where each S--I connection becomes I--I at rate $\lambda$. Here S and I stand for ``susceptible'' and ``infected'' respectively. The evoSI model is a modification of the SI model in which S--I edges are…
Iterative imputation, in which variables are imputed one at a time each given a model predicting from all the others, is a popular technique that can be convenient and flexible, as it replaces a potentially difficult multivariate modeling…
In this communication, we introduce a new statistical model and study its various mathematical properties. The expressions for hazard rate, reversed hazard rate, and odd functions are provided. We explore the asymptotic behaviors of the…
We survey known solutions to the infinite extendibility problem for (necessarily exchangeable) probability laws on $\mathbb{R}^d$, which is: Can a given random vector $\vec{X} = (X_1,\ldots,X_d)$ be represented in distribution as the first…
This paper provides sufficient conditions for the time of bankruptcy (of a company or a state) for being a totally inaccessible stopping time and provides the explicit computation of its compensator in a framework where the flow of market…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
Let $P_n^{\text{sep}}$ denote the uniform probability measure on the set of separable permutations in $S_n$. Let $\mathbb{N}^*=\mathbb{N}\cup\{\infty\}$ with an appropriate metric and denote by $S(\mathbb{N},\mathbb{N}^*)$ the compact…
We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…
The celebrated Kermack-McKendric model of epidemics studies the transmission of a disease in a population where each individual is initially susceptible (S), may become infective (I) and then removed or recovered (R) and plays no further…
In this work we describe a non-parametric disease model that links the temporal change of the prevalence of an infectious disease to the incidence and the recovery rates. The model is only based on the common epidemiological measures…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events…
The utility-based pricing of defaultable bonds in the case of stochastic intensity models of default risk is discussed. The Hamilton-Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equations for the value functions is derived. A finite difference method is used to…
The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise,…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…
Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size $n$. A Markovian SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) infectious disease,…