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Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
While it is expected that the large-scale tropical circulation should undergo some changes in a warmer climate, it remains an open question whether its characteristic features, such as the Hadley cell, the intertropical convergence zone, or…
The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in…
Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…
The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During…
Orbital forcing plays a key role in pacing the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the mechanistic linkages between the orbital parameters - eccentricity, obliquity, and precession - and global ice volume remain unclear. Here, we…
We present the AI weather and climate model intercomparison project (AIMIP), phase 1. Drawing from the rich tradition of intercomparisons in climate model development, we specify a common experiment, output data format, and training…
Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…
Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with…
Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…
Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…
Before about 500 million years ago, most probably our planet experienced temporary snowball conditions, with continental and sea ices covering a large fraction of its surface. This points to a potential bistability of Earth's climate, that…
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $^\circ$C. To narrow this range, we group 38 GCMs into low, medium…