Related papers: Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular…
The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
The CMIP global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020 is attributable to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future…
With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent,…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
The reliability of energy systems is strongly influenced by the prevailing climate conditions. With the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources, the interdependence between energy and climate systems has become even stronger. This…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…
We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…
To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…
Any experiment with climate models relies on a potentially large set of spatio-temporal boundary conditions. These can represent both the initial state of the system and/or forcings driving the model output throughout the experiment. Whilst…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
It is commonly accepted that the variations of Earth's orbit and obliquity control the timing of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Evidence comes from power spectrum analysis of palaeoclimate records and from inspection of the timing…
The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated…