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We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-13 Steven Heilman

Election results are determined by numerous social factors that affect the formation of opinion of the voters, including the network of interactions between them and the dynamics of opinion influence. In this work we study the result of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Gonzalo Travieso , Luciano da Fontoura Costa

For centuries, it has been widely believed that the influence of a small coalition of voters is negligible in a large election. Consequently, there is a large body of literature on characterizing the likelihood for an election to be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-06-13 Lirong Xia

Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-21 Alexandria Volkening , Daniel F. Linder , Mason A. Porter , Grzegorz A. Rempala

We explore the statistical laws behind the plurality voting system by investigating the election results for mayor held in Brazil in 2004. Our analysis indicate that the vote partition among mayor candidates of the same city tends to be…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-26 Luis E. Araripe , Raimundo N. Costa Filho , Hans J. Herrmann , Jose S. Andrade

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-18 Joshua J Bon , Timothy Ballard , Bernard Baffour

We study a model of temporal voting where there is a fixed time horizon, and at each round the voters report their preferences over the available candidates and a single candidate is selected. Prior work has adapted popular notions of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Edith Elkind , Svetlana Obraztsova , Jannik Peters , Nicholas Teh

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-17 Soudeep Deb , Rishideep Roy , Shubhabrata Das

We hypothesize that if election results are manipulated or forged, then, due to the well-known human attraction to round numbers, the frequency of reported round percentages can be increased. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed raw data…

Applications · Statistics 2016-06-30 Dmitry Kobak , Sergey Shpilkin , Maxim S. Pshenichnikov

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-06-28 Peter Klimek , Yuri Yegorov , Rudolf Hanel , Stefan Thurner

Despite extensive theoretical research on proportionality in approval-based multiwinner voting, its impact on which committees and candidates can be selected in practice remains poorly understood. We address this gap by (i) analyzing the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Niclas Boehmer , Lara Glessen , Jannik Peters

Voting data from city-councillors, state and federal deputies elections are analyzed and considered as a response function of a social system with underlying dynamics leading to complex behavior. The voting results from the last two general…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-08-27 M. L. Lyra , U. M. S Costa , R. N. Costa Filho , J. S. Andrade,

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-09-17 Nuno A. M. Araújo , José S. Andrade , Hans J. Herrmann

The electoral college of voting system for the US presidential election is analogous to a coarse graining procedure commonly used to study phase transitions in physical systems. In a recent paper, opinion dynamics models manifesting a phase…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-22 Kathakali Biswas , Soumyajyoti Biswas , Parongama Sen

A referendum to recall President Hugo Ch\'{a}vez was held in Venezuela in August of 2004. In the referendum, voters were to vote YES if they wished to recall the President and NO if they wanted him to continue in office. The official…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-15 Alicia L. Carriquiry

In the context of computational social choice, we study voting methods that assign a set of winners to each profile of voter preferences. A voting method satisfies the property of positive involvement (PI) if for any election in which a…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Wesley H. Holliday , Eric Pacuit

Elections for public offices in democratic nations are large-scale examples of collective decision-making. As a complex system with a multitude of interactions among agents, we can anticipate that universal macroscopic patterns could emerge…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-14 Ritam Pal , Aanjaneya Kumar , M. S. Santhanam

The integrity of elections is central to democratic systems. However, a myriad of malicious actors aspire to influence election outcomes for financial or political benefit. A common means to such ends is by manipulating perceptions of the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Junlin Wu , Andrew Estornell , Lecheng Kong , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

The State and its citizens generate lots of data. Once stored and processed, data can help resolve questions in Social Sciences, where it is common to need data in a different level of aggregation than the data is presented. In election…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2016-09-06 Camilo Melani , Joaquín Torré Zaffaroni , Alejandro Hernandez , Juan Echagüe

An electoral quick count is a statistical procedure whose main objective is to obtain a relatively small but representative sample of all the polling stations in a certain election, and to measure the uncertainty about the final result…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-08 Arturo Erdely