Related papers: Fear and its implications for stock markets
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the…
Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…
We study properties of the cross-sectional distribution of returns. A significant anti-correlation between dispersion and cross-sectional kurtosis is found such that dispersion is high but kurtosis is low in panic times, and the opposite in…
Behavioral Finance has become a challenge to the scientific community. Based on the assumption that behavioral aspects of investors may explain some features of the Stock Market, we propose an agent based model to study quantitatively this…
Observations indicate that the distributions of stock returns in financial markets usually do not conform to normal distributions, but rather exhibit characteristics of high peaks, fat tails and biases. In this work, we assume that the…
Price fluctuations in financial markets can be characterized by L\'evy's stable distribution, which is supported by the generalized central limit system. When the stable parameters were estimated from four different stock markets in long…
A stock market is considered as one of the highly complex systems, which consists of many components whose prices move up and down without having a clear pattern. The complex nature of a stock market challenges us on making a reliable…
Long memory and volatility clustering are two stylized facts frequently related to financial markets. Traditionally, these phenomena have been studied based on conditionally heteroscedastic models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH, inter…
We introduce tools to capture the dynamics of three different pathways, in which the synchronization of human decision-making could lead to turbulent periods and contagion phenomena in financial markets. The first pathway is caused when…
We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…
In setting up a stochastic description of the time evolution of a financial index, the challenge consists in devising a model compatible with all stylized facts emerging from the analysis of financial time series and providing a reliable…
Scale invariance, collective behaviours and structural reorganization are crucial for portfolio management (portfolio composition, hedging, alternative definition of risk, etc.). This lack of any characteristic scale and such elaborated…
Price dynamics is analyzed in terms of a model which includes the possibility of effective forces due to trend followers or trend adverse strategies. The method is tested on the data of a minority-majority model and indeed it is capable of…
Asynchronous trading in high-frequency financial markets introduces significant biases into econometric analysis, distorting risk estimates and leading to suboptimal portfolio decisions. Existing synchronization methods, such as the…
Norms of Persistent Homology introduced in topological data analysis are seen as indicators of system instability, analogous to the changing predictability that is captured in financial market uncertainty indexes. This paper demonstrates…
In nature and human societies, the effects of homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics on the evolution of collective behaviors are quite different from each other. It is of great importance to understand the underlying mechanisms of…
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share…
We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index alpha > 3 and this index tends to increase quickly with…
Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium…
The mathematical model of a linear system with the short memory about own stochastic behavior is proposed. It is assumed that the system is under a continual influence of independent stochastic impulses. In a short memory approximation the…