Related papers: Single Member Selection in Ensemble Forecasting

This study investigated an approach to improve the accuracy of computationally lightweight surrogate models by updating forecasts based on historical accuracy relative to sparse observation data. Using a lightweight, ocean-wave forecasting…

Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assigns to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for variations in base model accuracy…

Ensemble-based methods are highly popular approaches that increase the accuracy of a decision by aggregating the opinions of individual voters. The common point is to maximize accuracy; however, a natural limitation occurs if incremental…

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

Time series forecasting is a challenging problem particularly when a time series expresses multiple seasonality, nonlinear trend and varying variance. In this work, to forecast complex time series, we propose ensemble learning which is…

The objective of this paper is to define an effective strategy for building an ensemble of Genetic Programming (GP) models. Ensemble methods are widely used in machine learning due to their features: they average out biases, they reduce the…

Ensembling multiple predictions is a widely used technique for improving the accuracy of various machine learning tasks. One obvious drawback of ensembling is its higher execution cost during inference. In this paper, we first describe our…

Ensemble methods are frequently used in recommender systems to improve accuracy by combining multiple models. Recent work reports sizable performance gains, but most studies still optimize primarily for accuracy and robustness rather than…

To be able to produce accurate and reliable predictions of visibility has crucial importance in aviation meteorology, as well as in water- and road transportation. Nowadays, several meteorological services provide ensemble forecasts of…

Ensembling is a popular method used to improve performance as a last resort. However, ensembling multiple models finetuned from a single pretrained model has been not very effective; this could be due to the lack of diversity among ensemble…

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill…

Large-scale numerical simulations often produce high-dimensional gridded data that is challenging to process for downstream applications. A prime example is numerical weather prediction, where atmospheric processes are modeled using…

Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In…

We discuss how ensemble weather forecasts can be used, and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of two particular methods.

While machine learning-based weather prediction (MLWP) has achieved significant advancements, research on assimilating real observations or ensemble forecasts within MLWP models remains limited. We introduce ClimaX-LETKF, the first purely…

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate…

Ensemble techniques in recommender systems have demonstrated accuracy improvements of 10-30%, yet their environmental impact remains unmeasured. While deep learning recommendation algorithms can generate up to 3,297 kg CO2 per paper,…

This chapter proposes and provides an in-depth discussion of a scalable solution for running ensemble simulation for solar energy production. Generating a forecast ensemble is computationally expensive. But with the help of Analog Ensemble,…

Ensembles of forecasts are typically employed to account for the forecast uncertainties inherent in predictions of future weather states. However, biases and dispersion errors often present in forecast ensembles require statistical…

A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…