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One of the emerging trends for sports analytics is the growing use of player and ball tracking data. A parallel development is deep learning predictive approaches that use vast quantities of data with less reliance on feature engineering.…
Using tax and census data, we demonstrate that the distribution of individual income in the USA is exponential. Our calculated Lorenz curve without fitting parameters and Gini coefficient 1/2 agree well with the data. From the individual…
In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…
We consider the challenging problem of statistical inference for exponential-family random graph models based on a single observation of a random graph with complex dependence. To facilitate statistical inference, we consider random graphs…
Predicting the outcomes of future events is a challenging problem for which a variety of solution methods have been explored and attempted. We present an empirical comparison of a variety of online and offline adaptive algorithms for…
In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this…
Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
I present a simple and transparent standard for career greatness in baseball: any major league player with H > 2500 or HR > 350 or K > 2800 or W > 240 makes my Hall of Fame Cut. Rate statistics are avoided due to small sample issues and to…
We consider the distribution of the turning point location of time series modeled as the sum of deterministic trend plus random noise. If the variables are modeled by shifted exponentials, whose location parameters define the trend, we…
We mathematically prove that an existing linear predictor of baseball teams' winning percentages (Jones and Tappin 2005) is simply just a first-order approximation to Bill James' Pythagorean Won-Loss formula and can thus be written in terms…
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…
We employ the novel theory of heterogeneous extreme value statistics to accurately estimate the ultimate world records for the 100-m running race, for men and for women. For this aim we collected data from 1991 through 2023 from thousands…
A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…
In this paper we propose a mechanistic model that links micro social interactions to macro observables in the case of diffusion of film-going decisions. We devise a generalized epidemic model to capture the temporal evolution of box office…
The Weibull distribution is a very applicable model for the lifetime data. In this paper, we have investigated inference on the parameters of Weibull distribution based on record values. We first propose a simple and exact test and a…
The likelihood function is central to both frequentist and Bayesian formulations of parametric statistical inference, and large-sample approximations to the sampling distributions of estimators and test statistics, and to posterior…
We show that the great baseball players that started their careers before 1950 are overrepresented among rankings of baseball's all time greatest players. The year 1950 coincides with the decennial US Census that is closest to when Major…
We study records generated by Brownian particles in one dimension. Specifically, we investigate an ordinary random walk and define the record as the maximal position of the walk. We compare the record of an individual random walk with the…
We consider random walks on the line given by a sequence of independent identically distributed jumps belonging to the strict domain of attraction of a stable distribution, and first determine the almost sure exponential divergence rate, as…