Related papers: Trend arbitrage, bid-ask spread and market dynamic…
We consider a tick-by-tick model of price formation, in which buy and sell orders are modeled as self-exciting point processes (Hawkes process), similar to the one in [Bacry, Delattre, Hoffmann, Muzy, Modelling microstructure noise with…
We propose a simple stochastic model of market behavior. Dividing market participants into two groups: trend-followers and fundamentalists, we derive the general form of a stochastic equation of market dynamics. The model has two…
This paper is about our attempt of identifying trade elasticities through the variations in the exchange rate, for possible applications to the case of services whose physical transactions are veiled in the trade statistics. The regression…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
The methodology presented provides a quantitative way to characterize investor behavior and price dynamics within a particular asset class and time period. The methodology is applied to a data set consisting of over 250,000 data points of…
It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…
Mandatory emission trading schemes are being established around the world. Participants of such market schemes are always exposed to risks. This leads to the creation of an accompanying market for emission-linked derivatives. To evaluate…
By studying all the trades and best bids/asks of ultra high frequency snapshots recorded from the order books of a basket of 10 futures assets, we bring qualitative empirical evidence that the impact of a single trade depends on the…
We argue that contemporary stock market designs are, due to traders' inability to fully express their preferences over the execution times of their orders, prone to latency arbitrage. In turn, we propose a new order type which allows…
We study the Proportional Response dynamic in exchange economies, where each player starts with some amount of money and a good. Every day, the players bring one unit of their good and submit bids on goods they like, each good gets…
How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different timescales. Here we reveal that price…
We present results of numerical analysis of several simple models for the microstructure of a double auction market without intermediaries which were introduced in cond-mat/9808240. We perform computer simulations of the minimal model in…
We contrast Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), the theoretical basis for the development of financial instruments, with a dynamical picture of an interacting market, in a simple setting. The proliferation of financial instruments apparently…
The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with…
Statistical and dynamical characters of stock markets have been extensively studied, which now is providing the firm basis for econophysics and its application as ``stylized facts''. However, most of those studies are for markets under the…
The vast majority of market impact studies assess each product individually, and the interactions between the different order flows are disregarded. This strong approximation may lead to an underestimation of trading costs and possible…
We construct a price impact model between stocks in a correlated market. For the price change of a given stock induced by the short-run liquidity of this stock itself and of the information about other stocks, we introduce a self- and a…
We introduce a new model for describing the fluctuations of a tick-by-tick single asset price. Our model is based on Markov renewal processes. We consider a point process associated to the timestamps of the price jumps, and marks associated…
In this paper we investigate the endogenous information contained in four liquidity variables at a five minutes time scale on equity markets around the world: the traded volume, the bid-ask spread, the volatility and the volume at first…
We present a novel approach to describing the microstructure of high frequency trading using two key elements. First we introduce a new notion of informed trader which we starkly contrast to current informed trader models. We describe the…