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We define an opinion formation model of agents in a 1d ring, where the opinion of an agent evolves due to its interactions with close neighbors and due to its either positive or negative attitude toward the overall mood of all the other…

We study strategic interactions in a broker-mediated market in which agents learn and exploit each other's private information. A broker provides liquidity to an informed trader and to noise traders while managing inventory in a lit market.…

We present a dynamical model for the price evolution of financial assets. The model is based in a two level structure. In the first stage one finds an agent-based model that describes the present state of the investors' beliefs,…

We introduce tools to capture the dynamics of three different pathways, in which the synchronization of human decision-making could lead to turbulent periods and contagion phenomena in financial markets. The first pathway is caused when…

We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and…

The widespread emergence of opinion polarization is often attributed to the rise of social media and the internet, which can promote selective exposure and the formation of echo chambers. However, experimental evidence shows that exposure…

We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number $k$ that expresses its level of agreement…

We run experimental asset markets to investigate the emergence of excess trading and the occurrence of synchronised trading activity leading to crashes in the artificial markets. The market environment favours early investment in the risky…

A model of Boolean agents competing in a market is presented where each agent bases his action on information obtained from a small group of other agents. The agents play a competitive game that rewards those in the minority. After a long…

We study the behavior of simple models for financial markets with widely spread frequency either in the trading activity of agents or in the occurrence of basic events. The generic picture of a phase transition between information efficient…

This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…

Interaction strategies for reward in competitive environments are significantly influenced by the nature and extent of available information. In financial markets, particularly foreign exchange (forex), traders operate independently with…

In this dissertation two simple models of stock exchange are developed and simulated numerically. The first is characterized by centralized trading with a market maker. Unfortunately, this model is unable to generate realistic market…

In a prediction market, individuals can sequentially place bets on the outcome of a future event. This leaves a trail of personal probabilities for the event, each being conditional on the current individual's private background knowledge…

We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of…

In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper…

In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual…

Independent voters play an increasingly decisive role in contemporary elections, yet their collective behavior remains poorly understood. This paper investigates how a minority of voters with greater flexibility in their political…

A social system is considered whose agents choose between several alternatives of possible actions. The system is described by the fractions of agents preferring the corresponding alternatives. The agents interact with each other by…

Increased day-trading activity and the subsequent jump in intraday volatility and trading volume fluctuations has raised considerable interest in models for financial market microstructure. We investigate the random transitions between two…