Related papers: Real estate price peaks: a comparative overview
We analyse, following recent work of Roehner, changes in house prices for both the UK and Ireland. We conclude that prices in London have reached a tipping point and prices relative to inflation are set to fall over the next few years. If…
Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this…
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make…
We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential,…
The US housing market exhibits pronounced seasonal cycles: prices and sales rise through spring, peak in summer, and decline through autumn and winter. Since 2021, this pattern has shifted earlier in the calendar year, with spring…
Homeowners, first-time buyers, banks, governments and construction companies are highly interested in following the state of the property market. Currently, property price indexes are published several months out of date and hence do not…
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have…
In recent years Australia has observed a growing, unexplained resilience of increasing house price trends. Here, we seek to understand what is driving Australia's indestructible asset using insights from market experts. We construct a…
The Japanese real estate market, valued over 35 trillion USD, offers significant investment opportunities. Accurate rent and price forecasting could provide a substantial competitive edge. This paper explores using alternative data…
In recent years, real estate industry has captured government and public attention around the world. The factors influencing the prices of real estate are diversified and complex. However, due to the limitations and one-sidedness of their…
Urban housing markets, along with markets of other assets, universally exhibit periods of strong price increases followed by sharp corrections. The mechanisms generating such non-linearities are not yet well understood. We develop an…
We exploit a city-level panel comprised of individual house price estimates to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on both small and big real-estate markets in California USA. Descriptive analysis of spot house price estimates, including…
House price increases have been steady over much of the last 40 years, but there have been occasional declines, most notably in the recent housing bust that started around 2007, on the heels of the preceding housing bubble. We introduce a…
Real estate prices have a significant impact on individuals, families, businesses, and governments. The general objective of real estate price prediction is to identify and exploit socioeconomic patterns arising from real estate…
This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of…
In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by the market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when…
While tourism is widely regarded as a catalyst for economic and urban transformation, its effects on land prices remain contested. This study examines tourism and land prices using a panel of 1,724 Japanese municipalities from 2021 to 2024,…
We analyze how equilibrium housing prices are determined in the process of economic development within an overlapping generations model with perfect housing and rental markets. We characterize the rent growth rate in all equilibria. The…
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global…
I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product…