Related papers: "Universal" Distribution of Inter-Earthquake Times…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
We introduce a shear experiment that quantitatively reproduces the main laws of seismicity. By continuously and slowly shearing a compressed monolayer of disks in a ring-like geometry, our system delivers events of frictional failures with…
After the main shock of an earthquake, a stream of aftershocks that does not subside for a long time is usually observed. Fusakichi Omori found that the frequency of aftershocks decreases hyperbolically with time. It has recently been…
The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution…
We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). An aftershock sequence results in this model from…
Statistical similarities between earthquakes and other systems that emit cracking noises have been explored in diverse contexts, ranging from materials science to financial and social systems. Such analogies give promise of a unified and…
The elementary theory of aftershocks, being relatively simple mathematically, belongs to the basics of earthquake physics. The paper briefly outlines the concepts and ideas of the theory, provides equations for the relaxation of the source…
By analyzing a southern California earthquake catalog, Davidsen and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 048501 (2005)] claim to have found evidence contradicting the theory of aftershock zone scaling in favor of scale-free statistics. We present…
We present a new kind of critical stochastic finite-time-singularity, relying on the interplay between long-memory and extreme fluctuations. We illustrate it on the well-established epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model for aftershocks,…
The concept of memory is of central importance for characterizing complex systems and phenomena. Presence of long-term memories indicates how their dynamics can be less sensitive to initial conditions compared to the chaotic cases. On the…
Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock…
The $b$-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law contains information that is essential for evaluating earthquake hazard and predicting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Estimates of $b$ are often based on seismic events whose magnitude…
We have numerically investigated statistical properties of the so-called interoccurrence time or the waiting time, i.e., the time interval between successive earthquakes, based on the two-dimensional (2-D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff)…
Inspired by spring-block models, we elaborate a "minimal" physical model of earthquakes which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our new point is to demonstrate that the…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
The inverse Omori law for foreshocks discovered in the 1970s states that the rate of earthquakes prior to a mainshock increases on average as a power law ~ 1/(t_c-t)^p' of the time to the mainshock occurring at t_c. Here, we show that this…
We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fracture environment. These arguments, though preliminary, are…
The Burridge-Knopoff model of earthquakes has recently gained increased interest for the consistency of the predicted energy released by sismic faults, with the Gutenberg-Richter scaling law. The present work suggests an improvement of this…
Hysteresis loops and the associated avalanche statistics of spin systems, such as the random-field Ising and Edwards-Anderson spin-glass models, have been extensively studied. A particular focus has been on self-organized criticality,…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…