Related papers: El Nino and the Delayed Action Oscillator

El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…

We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the…

Arnold's standard circle maps are widely used to study the quasi-periodic route to chaos and other phenomena associated with nonlinear dynamics in the presence of two rationally unrelated periodicities. In particular, the El Nino-Southern…

While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…

The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the…

Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…

We show that the monthly recorded history (1878-2013) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be well described as a dynamic system that supports an average…

We perform a situational diagnosis in topics of astronomy of pre-service elementary teachers in order to try and develop didactic tools that better collaborate with their formal education. In this work we present the instrument we designed…

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

A spatiotemporal oscillator model for El Ni\~no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is constructed based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline depth dynamics. The model is enclosed by introducing a proportional relationship between…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…

Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…

The predictability of climate anomalies in the regions of Northern Eurasia in connection with El Nino phenomena is analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the most likely transition in 2024 from an El Nino phase at the beginning of the…

I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks during the crop-growing season affect harvest-related conflict in…

Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…

Owing to the remarkable development of deep learning technology, there have been a series of efforts to build deep learning-based climate models. Whereas most of them utilize recurrent neural networks and/or graph neural networks, we design…

Understanding how fast atmospheric variability shapes slow climate variability and sensitivity remains a central challenge in Earth-system science. Recent advances in machine-learned (ML) atmospheric models have demonstrated remarkable…

Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new…

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…

The Atacama desert stands as the most arid, non-polar, region on Earth and has accommodated a considerable portion of the world's ground-based astronomical observatories for an extended period. The comprehension of factors important for…