Related papers: Non Poisson intermittent events in price formation
The Poisson process of order $i$ is a weighted sum of independent Poisson processes and is used to model the flow of clients in different services. In the paper below we study some extensions of this process, for different forms of the…
In this article we show how to analyze the covariation of bond prices nonparametrically and robustly, staying consistent with a general no-arbitrage setting. This is, in particular, motivated by the problem of identifying the number of…
An empirical study of joint bivariate probability distribution of two consecutive price increments for a set of stocks at time scales ranging from one minute to thirty minutes reveals asymmetric structures with respect to the axes y=0, y=x,…
We develop a theory of securities price formation and dynamics based on quantum approach and without presuming any similarities with quantum mechanics. Disorder introduced by trading environment leads to probability distribution of returns…
We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model extending the decomposition obtained by E. Al\`os in [2] for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock…
We propose the point process model as the Poissonian-like stochastic sequence with slowly diffusing mean rate and adjust the parameters of the model to the empirical data of trading activity for 26 stocks traded on NYSE. The proposed scaled…
In order to use the advanced inference techniques available for Ising models, we transform complex data (real vectors) into binary strings, by local averaging and thresholding. This transformation introduces parameters, which must be varied…
The decentralized international market of currency trading is a prototypical complex system having a highly heterogeneous composition. To understand the hierarchical structure relating the price movement of different currencies in the…
In the many fields in which the Ising model is applied nowadays, the spin variables are often assumed to be of spin-class $\{-1,1\}$ or $\{0,1\}$, even though for any mix of binary real valued spin-classes a proper Ising model distribution…
We look at price formation in a retail setting, that is, companies set prices, and consumers either accept prices or go someplace else. In contrast to most other models in this context, we use a two-dimensional spatial structure for…
Option pricing formulas are derived from a non-Gaussian model of stock returns. Fluctuations are assumed to evolve according to a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation which maximizes the Tsallis nonextensive entropy of index $q$. A generalized…
Maximum likelihood estimation applied to high-frequency data allows us to quantify intermittency in the fluctu- ations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
In this paper, we obtain asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the implied volatility associated with a European call pricing function. We show that these formulas imply Lee's moment formulas for the implied volatility and the…
A one-dimensional flocking model using active Ising spins is studied, where the system evolves through the reinforcement learning approach \textit{via} defining state, action, and cost function for each spin. The orientation of spin with…
The study of the Ising model from a percolation perspective has played a significant role in the modern theory of critical phenomena. We consider the celebrated square-lattice Ising model and construct percolation clusters by placing bonds,…
We seek to utilize the nonextensive statistics to the microscopic modeling of the interacting many-investor dynamics that drive the price changes in a market. The statistics of price changes are known to be fit well by the Students-T and…
An unbinned statistical test on cluster-like deviations from Poisson processes for point process data is introduced, presented in the context of time variability analysis of astrophysical sources in count rate experiments. The measure of…
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…
The asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility associated with a general call pricing function has been extensively studied in the last decade. The main topics discussed in this paper are Lee's moment formulas for the implied volatility,…