Related papers: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
Increasing practical interest has been shown in regression problems where the errors, or disturbances, are centred in a way that reflects particular characteristics of the mechanism that generated the data. In economics this occurs in…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
The sequential analysis of series often requires nonparametric procedures, where the most powerful ones frequently use rank transformations. Re-ranking the data sequence after each new observation can become too intensive computationally.…
The present study concerns the numerical modeling of sea-wave instability under the effect of logarithmic-wind profile in hurricane conditions. The central point of the study is the calculation of the wave growth rate, which is proportional…
The present study concerns the numerical modeling of sea-wave instability under the effect of logarithmic-wind profile in hurricane conditions. The central point of the study is the calculation of the wave growth rate, which is proportional…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction is crucial for mitigating storm hazards, yet its complex dynamics pose challenges to traditional methods. Here, we introduce a Physics-Informed Residual Neural Ordinary Differential…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…
The random diffusion model is a continuum model for a conserved scalar density field driven by diffusive dynamics where the bare diffusion coefficient is density dependent. We generalize the model from one with a sharp wavenumber cutoff to…
We investigate the ocean wave field under Hurricane SAM (2021). Whilst measurements of waves under Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are rare, an unusually large number of quality in situ and remote measurements are available in that case. First, we…
This study develops a statistical conditional approach to evaluate climate model performance in wind speed and direction and to project their future changes under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario over inland and…
In fitting a mixture of linear regression models, normal assumption is traditionally used to model the error and then regression parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE). This procedure is not valid if the normal…
The innovations algorithm is a classical recursive forecasting algorithm used in time series analysis. We develop the innovations algorithm for a class of nonnegative regularly varying time series models constructed via transformed-linear…
Gray swans, plausible but unobserved extreme events, broaden our understanding of the range of hazards beyond those observed during the short observational record. They are useful for dynamical studies, synthetic training data, emergency…
The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…
Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…
Different disciplines pursue the aim to develop models which characterize certain phenomena as accurately as possible. Climatology is a prime example, where the temporal evolution of the climate is modeled. In order to compare and improve…
Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…
Recent seismic observations coming from acoustic and gravity modes clearly show that the solar standard model has reached its limits and can no longer be used to interpret satisfactorily seismic observations. In this paper, we present a…
The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…
An attempt is made to quantitatively demonstrate the difference between a complex adaptive combat model and conventional combat models. The work shows that complex adaptive models may give rise to "turbulent" dynamics, which emerge once the…