Related papers: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
Evaluating robustness under temporal distribution shift remains an open challenge. Existing metrics quantify the average decline in performance, but fail to capture how models adapt to evolving data. As a result, temporal degradation is…
Seasonally adjusted series are usually used to analyse the business cycle and turning points. When the irregular is too high, it is preferable to smooth the series in order to analyse the trend-cycle component directly. This study focuses…
A new theoretical approach to non-equilibrium statistical systems has recently been proposed by the author, a co-author and others. It is based on a variational principle which is associated with the discrepancy of a path through…
Most machine learning models operate under the assumption that the training, testing and deployment data is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This assumption doesn't generally hold true in a natural setting. Usually, the…
A storm is a type of extreme weather. Therefore, forecasting the path of a storm is extremely important for protecting human life and property. However, storm forecasting is very challenging because storm trajectories frequently change. In…
Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) remains challenging due to limited satellite observations probing TC structure and difficulties in resolving cloud properties involved in TC intensification. Recent research has demonstrated…
Analysis of data from particle physics experiments traditionally sacrifices some sensitivity to new particles for the sake of practical computability, effectively ignoring some potentially striking signatures. However, recent advances in…
This paper proposes an active model-based fault and failure tolerant control scheme for a class of marine vehicles with thruster redundancy. Unlike widely used state and parameter estimation methods, where the estimation errors are utilized…
Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…
A model for diffusion on a cubic lattice with a random distribution of traps is developed. The traps are redistributed at certain time intervals. Such models are useful for describing systems showing dynamic disorder, such as ion-conducting…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
Our goal is to quantify whether, and if so how, spatio-temporal patterns in tropical cyclone (TC) satellite imagery signal an upcoming rapid intensity change event. To address this question, we propose a new nonparametric test of…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame…
In this paper we study the problem of statistical inference on the parameters of the semiparametric variance-mean mixtures. This class of mixtures has recently become rather popular in statistical and financial modelling. We design a…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational…
The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and…