Related papers: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…
Solar flares, email exchanges, and many natural or social systems exhibit bursty dynamics, with periods of intense activity separated by long inactivity. These patterns often follow power- law distributions in inter-event intervals or event…
Electrical power systems are one of the most important infrastructures that support our society. However, their vulnerabilities have raised great concern recently due to several large-scale blackouts around the world. In this paper, we…
The origin of power-law distributions in self-organized criticality is investigated by treating the variation of the number of active sites in the system as a stochastic process. An avalanche is then regarded as a first-return random walk…
The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent…
This paper uses firm-level data recorded in the AMADEUS database to investigate the distribution of labour productivity in different European countries. We find that the upper tail of the empirical productivity distributions follows a…
Power grids vulnerability is a key issue in society. A component failure may trigger cascades of failures across the grid and lead to a large blackout. Complex network approaches have shown a direction to study some of the problems faced by…
The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis,…
It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact…
We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…
Blackouts in power grids typically result from cascading failures. The key importance of the electric power grid to society encourages further research into sustaining power system reliability and developing new methods to manage the risks…
Whereas the short time behaviour of an unstable quantum mechanical system is well understood from its theoretical as well as experimental side, the long time tail of the very same systems has neither been measured experimentally nor is…
The question we address here is of whether phenomena of collective bankruptcies are related to self-organized criticality. In order to answer it we propose a simple model of banking networks based on the random directed percolation. We…
In the framework of chaotic scattering we analyze passive tracer transport in finite systems. In particular, we study models with open streamlines and a finite number of recirculation zones. In the non trivial case with a small number of…
A popular theory of self-organized criticality relates driven dissipative systems to systems with conservation. This theory predicts that the stationary density of the abelian sandpile model equals the threshold density of the fixed-energy…
We use daily data on bilateral interbank exposures and monthly bank balance sheets to study network characteristics of the Russian interbank market over Aug 1998 - Oct 2004. Specifically, we examine the distributions of (un)directed…
We study the spreading of renewable power fluctuations through grids with Ohmic losses on the lines. By formulating a network adapted linear response theory, we find that vulnerability patterns are linked to the left Laplacian eigenvectors…
This paper concerns the potential of corrective actions, such as generation and load dispatch on minimizing the effects of transmission line failures in electric power systems. Three loss functions (grid-centric, consumer-centric, and…
A reliable supply of electricity is critical for our modern society and any large scale disturbance of the electrical system causes substantial costs. In 2015, one overloaded transmission line caused a cascading failure in the Turkish power…
In search of many social and economical systems, it is found that node strength distribution as well as degree distribution demonstrate the behavior of power-law with droop-head and heavy-tail. We present a new model for the growth of…