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The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-11-14 Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera , Blanca Mendoza , Graciela Velasco Herrera

In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-18 Valentina Zharkova

We have analyzed the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the spectral solar irradiance as ultraviolet emission (UV) in the wavelength range 115-180 nm, observed with the instruments TIM and SOLSTICE within the framework of SORCE (The Solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-07-25 E. E. Benevolenskaya , I. G. Kostuchenko

The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth and one of the main external drivers of its climate. Solar irradiance -- the radiative power emitted by the Sun and received at 1-AU -- varies on all observable timescales. It is measured as…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-22 D. Temaj , N. A. Krivova , T. Chatzistergos , S. K. Solanki , B. Hofer

The apparently unusual behaviour of the TSI during the most recent minimum of solar activity has been interpreted as evidence against solar surface magnetism as the main driver of the secular change in the TSI. We test claims that the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 N. A. Krivova , S. K. Solanki , W. Schmutz

Total solar irradiance (TSI) has been monitored from space since 1978. The measurements show a prominent variability in phase with the solar cycle, as well as fluctuations on timescales shorter than a few days. However, the measurements…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-26 Theodosios Chatzistergos , Ilaria Ermolli , Fabrizio Giorgi , Natalie A. Krivova , Cosmin Constantin Puiu

Global responses of the hydrological cycle to climate change have been widely studied but uncertainties of temperature responses to lower-tropospheric water vapor still remain. Here, we investigate the trends in global total precipitable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-21 Nenghan Wan , Xiaomao Lin , Roger A. Pielke , Xubin Zeng , Amanda M. Nelson

We analyse a simple model of the heat transfer to and from a small satellite orbiting round a solar system planet. Our approach considers the satellite isothermal, with external heat input from the environment and from internal energy…

Space Physics · Physics 2009-09-25 Jose Gaite , Angel Sanz-Andrés , Isabel Pérez-Grande

It is assumed that the solar cell efficiency of PV device is closely related to the solar irradiance, considered the solar parameter Global Solar Irradiance (G) and the meteorological parameters like daily data of Earth Skin Temperature…

Applications · Statistics 2012-06-08 Kashif Bin Zaheer , Waseem Ahmed Ansari , Syed Mohammad Murshid Raza

We directly determine the sensitivity and time delay of Earth's surface temperature response to annual solar irradiance variations from 60 years of data. A two-layer energy balance model is developed to interpret the results. Explaining…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 David H. Douglass , Eric G. Blackman , Robert S. Knox

This paper reports observations of regional and global upper stratosphere temperature (UST) and surface temperature, as well as various climate drivers including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone, aerosols, solar variability, snow cover…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-09 Qing-Bin Lu

We present results using the AutoClass analysis application available at NASA/Ames Intelligent Systems Div. (2002) which is a Bayesian, finite mixture model classification system developed by Cheeseman and Stutz (1996). We apply this system…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-14 R. K. Ulrich , D. Parker , L. Bertello , J. Boyden

Recent precise observations of solar global parameters are used to calibrate an upgraded solar model which takes into account magnetic fields in the solar interior. Historical data about sunspot numbers (from 1500 to the present) and solar…

Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-24 Sabatino Sofia , Linghuai H. Li

The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-09-05 K. L. Yeo , S. K. Solanki , C. M. Norris , B. Beeck , Y. C. Unruh , N. A. Krivova

Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-02 L. Jouve , C. P. Hung , A. S. Brun , S. Hazra , A. Fournier , O. Talagrand , B. Perri , A. Strugarek

We present the power spectrum of solar irradiance during 1985 and 1987 obtained from the ACRIM project from time scales of minutes to months. At low frequency the spectra are Lorentzian. At higher frequencies they are proportional to…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-28 Jon D. Pelletier

Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-11 Igor I. Mokhov , Dmitry A. Smirnov

Using the 1951--2017 historical series of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index and the monthly number of sunspots, it was possible to observe a significant association between them. The use of wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis showed…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-07 Cleber Souza Corrêa , Roberto Lage Guedes , André Muniz Marinho da Rocha , Karlmer Abel Bueno Corrêa

We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-03-21 Bernard Gottschalk

In his mathematical theory, Milankovic finds a link between the heat received by the Earth surface per unit time as a function of the solar ephemerids and derives a model of climate changes at periods longer than a few thousand years and…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-12-05 V. Courtillot , F. Lopes , D. Gibert , J. B Boulé , J. L Le Mouël