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One approach to the analysis of stochastic fluctuations in market prices is to model characteristics of investor behaviour and the complex interactions between market participants, with the aim of extracting consequences in the aggregate.…
We study the impact of exchange rate volatility on cost efficiency and market structure in a cross-section of banks that have non-trivial exposures to foreign currency (FX) operations. We use unique data on quarterly revaluations of FX…
This paper is the first study to examine the time instability of the APT in the Japanese stock market. In particular, we measure how changes in each risk factor affect the stock risk premiums to investigate the validity of the APT over…
We study the effect of parameter fluctuations on synchronization of a coupled chaotic system. The fluctuations to the parameter can be random or it can be a periodic modulation. For random fluctuations we introduce a new quantity, the…
We discuss how to characterize the behavior of a chaotic dynamical system depending on a parameter that varies periodically in time. In particular, we study the predictability time, the correlations and the mean responses, by defining a…
American options in a multi-asset market model with proportional transaction costs are studied in the case when the holder of an option is able to exercise it gradually at a so-called mixed (randomised) stopping time. The introduction of…
Stock price change in financial market occurs through transactions in analogy with diffusion in stochastic physical systems. The analysis of price changes in real markets shows that long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely…
We analyze realized volatilities constructed using high-frequency stock data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In order to avoid non-trading hours issue in volatility calculations we define two realized volatilities calculated separately in the…
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces…
We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties…
We consider issues of time in automated trading strategies in simulated financial markets containing a single exchange with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. In particular, we explore two effects: (i) reaction…
This paper studies the switching of trading strategies and its effect on the market volatility in a continuous double auction market. We describe the behavior when some uninformed agents, who we call switchers, decide whether or not to pay…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the market…
In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to…
Throughout the past year, Turkey's central bank policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have…
There are many studies dealing with the analysis of similarity among currencies in foreign exchange market by using network analysis approach. In those studies, each currency is represented by a univariate time series of exchange rate…
This paper aims at solving FX market volatility modeling problem and finding the most becoming approach to this task. Validity of two competing approaches, classical econometric generalized conditional heteroscedasticity and mathematical…
We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible…
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model…